Technology : future study
Futures studies is the systematic and interdisciplinary study of social and technological progress. It aims to quantitatively and qualitatively explore the range of plausible futures and to incorporate human values in the development of new technologies.[93]: 54 More generally, futures researchers are interested in improving "the freedom and welfare of humankind".[93]: 73 It relies on a thorough quantitative and qualitative analysis of past and present technological trends, and attempts to rigorously extrapolate them into the future.[93] Science fiction is often used as a source of ideas.[93]: 173 Futures research methodologies include survey research, modeling, statistical analysis, and computer simulations.[93]: 187
Existential risk
Main article: Global catastrophic risk
Existential risk researchers analyze risks that could lead to human extinction or civilizational collapse, and look for ways to build resilience against them.[94][95] Relevant research centers include the Cambridge Center for the Study of Existential Risk, and the Stanford Existential Risk Initiative.[96] Future technologies may contribute to the risks of artificial general intelligence, biological warfare, nuclear warfare, nanotechnology, anthropogenic climate change, global warming, or stable global totalitarianism, though technologies may also help us mitigate asteroid impacts and gamma-ray bursts.[97] In 2019 philosopher Nick Bostrom introduced the notion of a vulnerable world, "one in which there is some level of technological development at which civilization almost certainly gets devastated by default", citing the risks of a pandemic caused by bioterrorists, or an arms race triggered by the development of novel armaments and the loss of mutual assured destruction.[98] He invites policymakers to question the assumptions that technological progress is always beneficial, that scientific openness is always preferable, or that they can afford to wait until a dangerous technology has been invented before they prepare mitigations.[98]
